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RET Breakaway a Major ZAR Positive as ANC Closes Ranks On Corrupt Members

SOUTH AFRICA
  • his is a majorly positive scenario for ZAR as we see a multi-generational political shift away from years of endemic corruption under Zuma – towards a new reformist ANC with a more empowered Ramaphosa at the helm.
  • A splinter in the ANC would leave the RET high and dry and unlikely to survive.
  • The RET will be forced to approach the EFF, which is unlikely to accept old ANC bigwigs that may steal the spotlight from populist leader Julius Malema – who will also be weakened by the RET breakaway.
  • Factionalism within the ANC has been impeding Ramaphosa's policy reform since his inauguration with players like Public Protector Mkhwebane tasked with undermining his anti-corruption pushback, and bogging down cabinet members with false/questionable court cases.
  • With Ramphosa and the NEC closing ranks on corrupt individuals, Magahsule and the RET faction are running out of space to operate with step-aside deadlines due this week.
  • Although Magahsule is unlikely to step aside immediately, markets will be tracking how aggressively Ramaphosa/NEC enforces this for signs of the decisive leadership needed to reassert SA on a more dominant political trajectory.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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