Sep Retail Sales Seen Higher: Preview - 0700BST 23/10/20

BBG : +0.2%m/m; +3.7%y/y; Prev (Aug): +0.8%m/m, +2.8%y/y

Ex. Fuel: BBG: +0.5% m/m, +5.0% y/y; Prev (Aug): +0.6% m/m, +4.3% y/y

• M/M retail sales are expected to rise again in Sep, although at a slower pace of 0.2% after Aug's 0.8% gain.
• Aug's uptick marked the fourth successive increase and overall sales were 4.0% higher than in Feb, nevertheless, sales growth has decelerated since Jul.
• Moreover, consumption patterns changed during the pandemic with non-store sales being almost 40% higher than in Feb, while clothing sales were still around 16% below their pre-crisis level.
• Despite a small drop in online sales, online retailing still remains elevated, as sales were 46.8% higher in Aug than in Feb.
• As Covid-19 cases are rising and strict social distancing measures have been reintroduced, the change in consumer behaviour seems likely to stay and high streets will continue to suffer.
• The BRC recently noted that footfall improved slightly, however the small upticks were mainly seen in retail parks and shopping centres, but high streets continued to remain empty.