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Retail Sales Don't Move The Needle Ahead Of BoC

CANADA
  • A mostly in line retail sales print, albeit with some nuance, sees Canadian assets mostly track international moves.
  • GoCs have rallied 2bps through 2-10Y tenors since the retail sales report but it’s mostly in keeping with Treasuries. GoCs sit 2-5.5bp richer across the curve.
  • USDCAD is 10 pips lower since the data to reverse a quick lift beforehand. It remains within yesterday’s range, currently at 1.3697.
  • Some more detail: Retail sales as expected in August at -0.1% (cons -0.1) as they improved from the -0.3% indicated at the advance release.
  • Volume details were mixed, falling a heavy -0.6% M/M seasonally adjusted (-0.7% NSA) but after some upward revisions. Volumes have fallen in four of the past six months.
  • The lack of bounce in the advance for September values doesn’t bode well for momentum though, indicated as unchanged.
  • BC port strikes still had an impact in August, with 12% of retailers reporting disruption from 17% in July.

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