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Retail Sales Due 0830ET

CANADA
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  • Consensus sees retail sales rising 0.1% M/M in February, as per last month’s advance estimate, after -0.3% M/M in January.
  • With goods prices falling in February, this could translate to slightly stronger growth on volumes terms.
  • Other details could be more mixed though, with CIBC cautioning that ex-auto sales could have fallen -0.2% M/M after January’s +0.5% was “likely boosted by milder than normal weather”.
  • As for the March advance estimate, RBC suggest that “early indications for March are soft—auto sales retraced most of their February increase. Our tracking of card transactions also points to a broader pullback in spending in March.”
  • BoC-dated OIS has been showing roughly 15bp of cumulative cuts for June before a first cut is fully priced for July. Surprises in this release could lend weight to or go against theories of divergence with the US, but we’re still to see labour and CPI reports for April ahead of the Jun 5 BOC which could help limit local reaction.
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  • Consensus sees retail sales rising 0.1% M/M in February, as per last month’s advance estimate, after -0.3% M/M in January.
  • With goods prices falling in February, this could translate to slightly stronger growth on volumes terms.
  • Other details could be more mixed though, with CIBC cautioning that ex-auto sales could have fallen -0.2% M/M after January’s +0.5% was “likely boosted by milder than normal weather”.
  • As for the March advance estimate, RBC suggest that “early indications for March are soft—auto sales retraced most of their February increase. Our tracking of card transactions also points to a broader pullback in spending in March.”
  • BoC-dated OIS has been showing roughly 15bp of cumulative cuts for June before a first cut is fully priced for July. Surprises in this release could lend weight to or go against theories of divergence with the US, but we’re still to see labour and CPI reports for April ahead of the Jun 5 BOC which could help limit local reaction.