MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: ECB Should Be Close To 2% In Next Quarters -Centeno

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI: US NOV IMPORT PRICES +0.1%

MNI: CANADA Q3 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 79.3%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Retail sales due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK retail sales are due at 7:00BST and will be watched closely as the best indication of the state of the consumer after the Ofgem price cap and national insurance increases (which both came into effect at the beginning of April).
  • The March data (released last month) saw a drop of -1.4% M/M. March saw non-store retailing accounting for much of the decline, as well as significant downwards pressure from decreased auto fuel sales (-3.8% m/m).
  • A softer contraction of -0.3% m/m is expected by consensus in April. However, compared to April 2021 a -7.0% y/y decline is anticipated. This would be the steepest annualised decline since May 2020, as consumers feel the income squeeze of the Ofgem price cap increase and inflation running hot at 9.0%.
  • Given the series is relatively volatile, we would probably need a big downside surprise to have a meaningful market impact, and even then it's more likely we get the market impact delayed until 7:30BST when STIR markets open, rather than a big move immediately in the pound.
  • Given what it already priced in for the BOE (roughly 80% probability of a 50bp hike in either June or August), a strong print will likely have less market impact.
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.