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Retail sales due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
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  • A quick reminder that UK retail sales data is due for release at 7:00GMT.
  • On a M/M basis, a rebound is expected after the -3.3%M/M ex fuel and -3.2%M/M inc fuel prints seen in December.
  • Note that these prints followed a November print of around +1.5%M/M (ex fuels) and the seasonality of retail sales around Black Friday and the holiday period is still causing some issues in the monthly series.
  • The Bloomberg consensus is looking for a print to reverse around half of last month's M/M declines whilst remaining negative Y/Y. (Outside of November 2023 the Y/Y ex-fuel print has been in negative territory since April 2022 as the economy moved away from goods to services consumption post-pandemic).
  • The retail sales numbers are very volatile, and can often be revised, so we put little weight on them in terms of either forecasting economic trends or being useful for monetary policy.
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  • A quick reminder that UK retail sales data is due for release at 7:00GMT.
  • On a M/M basis, a rebound is expected after the -3.3%M/M ex fuel and -3.2%M/M inc fuel prints seen in December.
  • Note that these prints followed a November print of around +1.5%M/M (ex fuels) and the seasonality of retail sales around Black Friday and the holiday period is still causing some issues in the monthly series.
  • The Bloomberg consensus is looking for a print to reverse around half of last month's M/M declines whilst remaining negative Y/Y. (Outside of November 2023 the Y/Y ex-fuel print has been in negative territory since April 2022 as the economy moved away from goods to services consumption post-pandemic).
  • The retail sales numbers are very volatile, and can often be revised, so we put little weight on them in terms of either forecasting economic trends or being useful for monetary policy.