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Retail Sales Stable At Elevated Level Through The Volatility

AUSTRALIA DATA

Retail sales in January came in stronger-than-expected at +1.9% m/m after a 4% drop in December and 1.7% rise in November. This left the annual rate stable at a robust 7.5% y/y. Retail is only part of overall consumption and tomorrow’s Q4 GDP report will be watched closely for any slowing in total expenditure.

  • November through to January were heavily impacted by festive shopping and the increasing importance of Black Friday discounts in November. The value of retail sales is around the September 2022 level signalling that through the end-of-year volatility, retail spending has stabilised but at a level still 17% higher than March 2020. February should give an idea of the underlying trend.
  • Retail turnover rose across industries with department stores up 8.8% and restaurants up 1.2%, reflecting strong services spending over the summer. The numbers are nominal and so have also been boosted by rising prices.
Australia retail sales vs CBS household spending intentions y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/CBA

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