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Richer But Off Session Highs Ahead Of RBA Decision Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +4.0 & XM +5.5) are richer but off Sydney session highs.

  • June private sector credit rose 0.2% from a month earlier (+5.5% y/y) versus expectations of +0.4% m/m. Owner-occupier loans +0.4% m/m (+5.3% y/y), while investor housing loans -0.1% m/m (+3.0% y/y). Lending to non-financial businesses printed +0.3% m/m, +8.3% y/y. MI Inflation gauge printed +0.8% (+5.4% y/y) versus +0.1% (+5.7% y/y) prior.
  • US Tsys have been pressured in recent dealing as a cheapening in JGBs spills over. US tsys sit 2-3bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the belly is marginally underperforming. TYU3 deals at 111-08, -0-03, a touch off the base of the 0-07 range.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -2bp at +4bp.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bp lower.
  • The bills strip has twist flattened with pricing -1 to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bp firmer for meetings out to Feb’24 and 1-4bp softer for meetings beyond. The market attaches a 24% chance of a 25bp hike at tomorrow’s meeting.
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