Richer On Monday After Weak ISM Survey

TYM3 deals at 115-19+, +0-05, in line with late NY levels.

• Cash tsys sit 2-7bps richer across the major benchmarks, the curve bull steepened.
• Tsys extended higher as the ISM gauge of manufacturing activity printed softer than expected remaining in contractionary territory. Measures of prices paid, new orders and employment also fell sharply.
• Earlier in the session tsys firmed off lows as Oil remained in focus after the surprise OPEC+ production cuts announced on Sunday. Comments from Russia's Novak noted that a supply overhang was still seen in the global Oil market, and voluntary cuts are not within the OPEC+ framework.
• Early this morning Fedspeak from Governor Cook noted that the disinflationary process is underway, but there is more work to do. She also noted that continuing tightness in the labour market is still producing an inflationary impulse.
• Fed dated OIS price a ~16bp hike into the May meeting with the terminal rate a touch below 5%, there are ~70bps of cuts priced for 2023.
• In Asia today the RBAs Monetary Policy Decision provides the highlight. Further out we have Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Opening. Fedspeak from Fed Governor Cook will cross.