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Richer With US Tsys Ahead Of Q1 CPI

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are sharply stronger (YM +11.0 & XM +10.0) ahead of the release of Q1 CPI data (0230 BST). The US Tsy curve bull steepened due to generally disappointing US corporate earnings and risk-off tone, resulting in a 13bp decline in the 2-year yield and a 9bp decline in the 10-year in NY trade. US Tsys were however slightly off late session bests after Alphabet revenue beat expectations with NASDAQ futures around 1.3% firmer after the NY close.

  • Cash ACGBs opened 11-13bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -6bp.
  • 3s10s swaps curve bull steepens at the open with rates 10-11bp lower.
  • Bills strip is flatter with pricing +5 to +12.
  • RBA dated OIS opened 8-11bp softer for meetings beyond August with the cumulative tightening by August reduced to 12bp from 22bp ahead of the ANZAC day holiday.
  • Q1 CPI data is scheduled for release today and is expected to confirm that inflation peaked at the end of 2022. Moderating food inflation is expected to offset rising rents and utilities. According to BBG consensus, annual headline inflation is expected to slow to +6.9% from +7.8% in Q4. Trimmed Mean CPI is expected to print +1.4% Q/Q and +6.7% Y/Y versus +1.7% and +6.9%.
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