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Rising Economic and Political Uncertainty Keeps Weighing on HUF

HUNGARY
  • The rising uncertainty over the legal conflict with the EU combined and the Delta have been weighing on the HUF, which has been trending higher since the beginning of July as preference for 'safe' haven such as the US Dollar has been increasing.
  • Odds for another 30bps hike at the next meeting (July 27) have been rising significantly following the higher-than-expected CPI print in June (+5.3% YoY vs.0 4.9% exp.).
  • The HUF weakness could eventually intensify the inflationary pressures in the coming months, which could put the NBP in a difficult position.
  • We know that an aggressive tightening in a period of elevated economic and political uncertainty could lead to a sharp drop in growth expectations.
  • There are no important economic data to watch this week.
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