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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
The RBNZ’s survey of expectations for Q4 showed a further step up in inflation expectations, especially further out, signalling that they are becoming deanchored. As a result, the RBNZ is likely to maintain its hawkish stance for now.
- Expected annual CPI growth 1-year out rose to 5.1% from 4.9% in Q3 and 2-years out increased to 3.6% from 3.1%. The NZ 2-year swap rate is roughly in line with the move in 2-year ahead expectations (see Figure 1 below).
- The 1-year out measures often leads CPI inflation and suggests that it is unlikely to moderate over the coming quarters (see Figure 2 below).
- While monetary conditions are perceived to tighten this quarter and next, some slight easing is expected in 12-months.
Figure 1: NZ 2-year ahead inflation expectations vs 2-yr swap rate
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/RBNZ
Figure 2: NZ 1-year ahead inflation expectations vs CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/RBNZ
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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