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Rising Inflation Expectations Support Kiwi

NZD

Kiwi catches light bid after the release of the RBNZ's Q4 Survey of Expectations, which showed a further jump in anticipated inflation. The most closely watched gauge of 2-year inflation expectations rose to +2.96% from +2.27%, reaching a fresh 10-year high.

  • As flagged earlier, the survey comes out just a few days before the next RBNZ monetary policy meeting, with policymakers widely expected to hike the OCR in response to mounting inflationary pressures.
  • Market pricing of RBNZ interest-rate action next week has been more or less unchanged after the release, with the OIS strip still pricing ~35bp worth of tightening. That being said, there has been some hawkish repricing further out the curve, which implies a steeper tightening path.
  • NZD/USD sits +14 pips at $0.7012, familiar technical levels remain in play.
  • AUD/NZD has shed 32 pips as the Aussie sits at the bottom of the G10 pile. The rate last trades at NZ$1.0351, with bears setting their sights on Nov 9 low of NZ$1.0331.
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