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Free AccessRising Inflation Risks Further Outsized RBNZ Hikes
NZ CPI for Q3 exceeded the upper end of expectations rising 2.2% q/q to be 7.2% y/y after 1.7% q/q and 7.3% in Q2. This data is likely to be concerning for the RBNZ, especially the non-tradeable component, and so it’s unlikely it will pivot at the November 23 meeting.
- Both non-tradeable and tradeable CPIs rose more than expected at 2.0% q/q and 2.2% q/q, respectively, to 6.6% y/y and 8.1% y/y. Non-tradeable inflation reached its highest annual rate since the series began in 2000, which suggests increasing domestic inflation pressures. Therefore, the RBNZ aren’t about to reach its terminal rate despite being one of the first central banks to tighten.
- The main drivers of the outsized inflation move were housing- and utilities-related components. The cost of building a new home has soared. Food and transport costs were also contributors. Services inflation also rose to 5.1% y/y from 4.3%, the highest since 1995 and another indicator of building domestically-driven inflation.
Source: MNI - Market News, Refinitiv, Statistics NZ
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.