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Rising Uncertainty and Dovish NBP Keep Weighing on PLN

POLAND
  • In recent weeks, a rising number of legal despites with the EU has become investors' focus as Poland was given an August 16 ultimatum to comply with the EU court orders to halt a controversial regime to discipline judges.
  • Hence, the uncertainty related to the legal disputes in addition to the super-dovish NBP could continue to weigh on the PLN in the short to medium term.
  • Yesterday, NBP Governor Glapinski once again confirmed that it would be 'unreasonable to hike rates now' as he sees risk of slower recovery.
  • Economic data also showed yesterday that PPI inflation rose slightly less than expected in June to 6.7% YoY (vs. 7% exp.), up from a revised 6.6% the previous month.
  • This morning (9am London time), economic data to watch are July consumer confidence and June retail sales.
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