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Risk Of Government Shutdown Remains High Despite End Of Speaker Chaos

US

A new survey from Punchbowl News has found that, “Most K Street leaders (82%) say there will likely be a government shutdown between now and January 2024.”

  • Punchbowl writes: “Newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson has already said he wants a stopgap funding bill until January or April of next year. Many House conservatives seem to be willing to give him time to settle in, and so are open to a CR for now. But there’s already been some pushback in the Senate, where appropriators don’t want to go into next year still operating under a short-term continuing resolution.”
  • The Punchbowl survey shows that Washington insiders appear to hold a more pessimistic view of Johnson's ability to aoid a government shutdown than Wall Steet.
  • Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, told Market Watch last week following Johnson's election: “...shutdown risk is still probably in the 20% to 30% range, but it’s much less than it was just a couple of weeks ago.”

Figure 1: How Likely is a Government Shutdown Between now and January 2024?

Source: Punchbowl News

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