Risk Of Significant Unrest As Uganda Awaits Election Results

The risk of a significant deterioration in political stability in Uganda is high as the country awaits the results of yesterday's presidential election.

• Early results show 34-year incumbent President Yoweri Museveni (76) with a sizeable lead. However, his opponent, former musician and activist Bobi Wine (38) has claimed victory, arguing that the preliminary results are a "joke". The preliminary results that account for 29% of polling stations show Museveni with 63% of the vote to Wine's 28%.
• Full results are expected on Saturday.
• There have been accusations of political violence and suppression of opposition activities by the security services according to the opposition. Many have died over the past several months, including at protests by Wine supporters angry at one of his frequent arrests on charges the opposition say are trumped up.
• Uganda has been a largely stable entity in East Africa in recent years compared to many of its neighbours. South Sudan to the north remains in a state of perpetual near-civil war, while the regions of the DRC to the west are largely lawless and under control of anti gov't militias. Mass political upheaval in Uganda could exacerbate tensions in this historically unstable region.