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Risk-On Gains Momentum, First Republic Bank Deposit Focus

US TSYS
  • Front month Treasury futures are extending session lows at the moment as risk-on sentiment gains momentum with equity index futures extending session highs (ESM3 at 3993.0, with focus on firm resistance of 4031.46, 50-day EMA).
  • The latest trigger for the current rally stems from headlines over the amount of support major banks are willing to invest in First Republic Bank (FRC), anywhere from $30B (Bbg) to $20B (CNBC).
  • Front month Treasury futures has 30Y Bonds down 31 at 130-23 (30Y yield 3.7039%), 10Y notes -27.5 at session low of 114-08.5 with focus on first support at 113-08.5 (March 15 Low).
  • Weaker short end rates are gradually unwinding the week's rate-cut (25bp) expectations from July out to November now, while the May Fed terminal rate has climbed to 5.96%.
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