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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
Retail and total card spending values rose for the third consecutive month in October by 1% m/m. Retail has posted above 1% in each of those months. The annual rates moderated but this is due to Covid-related base effects as spending in October 2021 rose around 10% m/m. They remain elevated though with retail card spending up 17.3% y/y and total +21% y/y.
- The retail trade survey for Q3 is published on November 25 and quarterly changes in retail spending on cards have historically had a 94% correlation with those of nominal retail sales. The average value of Q3 retail card transactions rose 1.9% q/q suggesting that retail sales should also be stronger. Currently the Q4 average of retail card spending is up 2.2% q/q.
- The card transaction data is nominal and given that Q3 CPI goods inflation rose 1.7% q/q, a large part of spending data is reflecting inflation. So, real retail sales may not look as positive in Q3 as the retail transaction data.
Retail sales values vs retail card transactions q/q%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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