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Rosengren: We Won't Have Answer On The Rise Of Trend Inflation Until 2022

FED

Two bits of today's speech by Boston Fed Pres Rosengren that stand out:

  • "compensation and wages have yet to expand at rates that would drive accelerating inflation, and the most likely outcome remains that inflation will normalize close to 2 percent"
  • And he does a bit more to define the timeframe in which the Fed may or may not view 2021 inflation as transitory: "the debate about whether trend inflation will rise as the economy strongly recovers, represented by the dispersion of Blue Chip inflation forecasts for 2022, will not be answered until next year"
  • An odd one is this quote on wage pressures - "The employment cost index ... to date is not showing much change" - given that the private employment cost index came in at +0.9% Q/Q in Q1, the highest reading since 2007.
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