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RUB Bulls Cautious as JBS Details Emerge, Russia-US Summit Risks Remain

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB pares an early move higher, peaking at 73.7435 before returning to 73.50.
  • Early USD strength seen keeping EMFX on the back foot.
  • Oil markets managed to hold onto gains above $70/bbl after OPEC+ retained its plans to cautiously return oil supply in June & July, while expecting fuel demand to rebound strongly during the US summer.
  • OPEC+ will return 700k bpd & 840k bpd in June & July respectively.
  • Optimism on the oil forecast should buoy RUB in the coming period as brent gains upside traction.
  • News of the JBS Cyber attack may keep RUB bulls slightly cautious as the narrative develops, with US-Russia ties still fragile in the lead up to the June 16 meeting.
  • Both sides remain at odds over the agenda, but seem to have an underlying desire to cooperate.
  • At home, however, Biden is coming under pressure for seeing tough on China and soft on Russia – similar to his predecessor, which may push him to try to be firmer at the upcoming meeting to dispel such comparisons.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.4212, Sup2: 73.1718, Res1: 73.7436, Res2: 73.9706
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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