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RUB Firms as Oil Bulls Tentatively Return, CPI & FOMC Minutes In Focus

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens -0.51% lower this morning, bolstered by buying activity in oil markets after a sharp sell-off in yesterday's session.
  • Oil markets remain on tenterhooks, awaiting guidance from OPEC+ on August supply as differences within the cartel continue to create uncertainty RE the supply outlook and unregulated output concerns.
  • GS, however, reiterated its view that $80/bbl would be reached early next year.
  • Cybersecurity talks between the US and Russia (may happen next week) could hold both negative and positive consequences, but the mere existence of dialogue amid frayed ties could be construed as a net positive.
  • Biden's meeting on combatting ransomware will be monitored this evening for anti-Russian rhetoric.
  • Additionally, we see CPI data this afternoon – expected to rise to 6.4% and spark a higher degree of concern at the CBR, with sell-side institutions amending forecasts to include the possibility of a hike in the 50-100bp range in July.
  • An in-line or upside surprise would likely see hawkish bets increase, which have already been reflected in 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads (currently pricing +128.5bp).
  • Nabiullina has stressed the CBR's concern with price pressures and the possibility of exceeding the 5-6% neutral rate in the near-term.
  • A hawkish print would likely bolster RUB demand at these levels, but may be overshadowed by the FOMC minutes a few hours later.
  • Intraday Sup1: 74.00, Sup2: 73.6455, Sup3: 73.3652, Res1: 74.5168, Res2: 74.9975
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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