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- USD/RUB opens a fraction higher this morning, owing to early weakness in oil markets and a marginally firmer BBDXY.
- The cross held onto the move below 74.00, supported by a +2.15% rise in Brent, that saw a key technical close above Monday's open at 73.34 – adding weight to the possibility of a near-term recovery in oil prices.
- However, concerns over the delta variant should remain a key source of volatility for oil markets in the coming weeks.
- For today, focus shifts to the CBR where Nabiullina is expected to accelerate the bank's normalisation process by +75-100bp.
- Our base case scenario is +75bp with material risks to +100bp, however we see the recent moderation in weekly CPI numbers and slowdown in high-frequency growth indicators as cause for a more orderly step to +75bp – with the bank retaining optionality for further hikes in September should overshooting pressures fail to moderate.
- 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have moved lower to +82bp today, down from a peak of +140 Mid-July.
- Industrial production fell well below expectations for 11% at 10.4% in June, adding some weight to concerns of a moderation in demand-side drivers for CPI.
- Intraday Sup1: 73.5342, Sup2: 73.0234, Res1: 73.9345, Res2: 74.2486
3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spreads Narrow