Free Trial

RUB Revels in Risk Premia Unwind, Possibly Supporting CBR's "Gradual" Tightening Promises

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens lower, driving towards the 75.00 handle as positive RUB sentiment picks up on the back of a major de-escalation with Ukraine.
  • The forecasts associated with our base case scenario in the crisis have materialised, with risk premia unwinding substantially and USD/RUB breaking the 77.50-75.50 consolidation range.
  • With the RUB still heavily undervalued vs its peers, markets will likely now eye pre-sanctions/Ukraine levels in the 73.50-75.50 range.
  • However, choppy trading is likely to persist as the unwind resumes and tensions with the West taper off slightly, but still remain strained. Oil markets in the green today, providing additional support to RUB after a series of lower sessions.
  • Focus turns to the CBR today, expected to hike +25bp.
  • Expected firmness in the currency on lower geopolitical risks may provide further support for the CBR sticking with promises for a "gradual" tightening over an accelerated trajectory.
  • However, material risks to a +50bp hike at this meeting remain.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have narrowed -17bp since Wednesday to +83bp and may continue to do so as RUB strength gains momentum.
  • Markets have mostly priced a +25bp hike, which may see little market impact.
  • However, a surprise +50bp move would likely give RUB a bit of a kick-start.
  • Intraday Sup1 : 74.9221, Sup2: 74.5050, Res1: 75.3055, Res2: 75.7372
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.