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RUB Slides as Reports of Shelling in the Donbas Hit the Wires

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +1.25% higher this morning, moving back above 76.00 on the back of increased uncertainty over shelling in the Donbas and the validity of Russia’s troop pullback claims.
  • Donbas shelling is the first on over a month and violates the ceasefire, while mixed reports of troop movements have been extremely noisy in the past 48hrs.
  • Sentiment remains fragile and choppy with the focus on clear signs of troop pullbacks validated by the West before markets get too optimistic on a decisive de-escalation.
  • USD weakness in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes is helping soften risk-off concerns around the crisis.
  • Russia’s foreign ministry has pushed back against comments of increased troop numbers on the border and issued fresh comments that more units are returning from Crimea after drills.
  • Belarus drills are expected to be completed by 20 Feb and be followed by a full return to Russia. USD/RUB is likely to remain choppy within the 74.89-77.50 range, pending clearer signs of the direction of travel in the crisis.
  • Intraday Sup1: 75.5827, Sup2: 75.148, Res1: 76.537, Res2: 77.1812
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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