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RUB Steadies following API Build, Shows Vulnerability to Fed

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens higher against the grain in CEEMEA, most likely due to softness in brent after a second consecutive API build (2m bbl build vs 1.9m draw exp).
  • Weekly CPI & PPI data will also be scrutinised as successive upside prints force sell-side institutions to revise calls for a 25bp cut at Friday's CBR meeting as monetary space erodes.
  • USD/RUB holding a choppy range around 73.30-73.80, but sellers continue to emerging on moves higher.
  • Breakout through 73.30 should see the cross return to 73.00, while a move above 74.00 may force a short term correction higher.
  • As one of the more crowded EM longs, RUB could suffer more than its EM high-beta peers on a hawkish fed surprise.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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