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Free AccessRupee Outperformance Continues, CNH/INR Eyeing Test Of 200-day MA Support
USD/INR is extending its break sub the simple 200-day MA, last near 82.79 (earlier lows were at 82.725). This is the lowest levels in the pair since early September last year. Whilst percentage change moves are modest ( the rupee is up only 0.55% so far this year), its outperformance against the rest of EM Asia FX remains evident.
- On top of the news from earlier in the week around India bond inclusion into Bloomberg's EM bond index, growth expectations remain elevated as well.
- RBI Governor Das stated growth may be closer to 8% for the fiscal year (ending this March), which would be above the government's target (BBG). Survey business sentiment measures remain very elevated, particularly compared to the rest of the world.
- The preferred method to express bullish INR views is likely to remain on a cross basis, as the RBI is still likely to remain guarded against rapid rupee appreciation against the USD. CNH/INR is one such cross, where relative growth and carry fundamentals remain stacked in the rupee's favor.
- This cross was last near 11.48, very near its simple 200-day MA, which has been a support point so far this year. A clean break lower could see the 11.40 region target.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.