Russia Crude Export Cuts Could Accelerate Crude Rally: BofA

The rally in oil markets could accelerate if Russia continues to curtail crude exports, Francisco Blanch at Bank of America said to Bloomberg. Russian exports are the wild card that can further propel oil above 90$/bbl.

• Now that interest rate hikes are seen as easing, oil has room to rally, especially as global inventory has drained to lows that people were “just not positioned for,” Blanch said.
• Saudi Arabia likely won’t increase output drastically to avoid a build-up in inventories during a period of economic slowdown.
• US government plans to refills the strategic oil reserves could impact the market. “I definitely think it would be very prudent to add 150m barrels or 180m over a year,” said Blanch. “That’s half a million barrels a day.”
• BofA earlier this week maintained a Brent forecast of 80$/bbl in Q3 and 82$/bbl in Q4 and a forecast of 90$/bbl for average Brent prices in 2024 due to tighter balances.