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OIL
Recent Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refineries could have a more substantial impact than attacks earlier this year with primary processing capacity impacted according to Wood Mackenzie on March 21.
- Total Russian refined product exports decreased an average 1mb/d in the last two weeks with diesel/gasoil exports down 400kb/d and fuel oil down 300kb/d. Peak maintenance in May could see a further 200kb/d decrease in product exports.
- Limited impact was seen on refining throughput or exports after attacks in January and February with secondary processing capacity and tank storage targeted.
- The attacks on the Nizhny Novgorod, Slavyansk-Eco, Syzran refineries in March are estimated to remove 400kb/d of primary processing capacity. Slavyansk-Eco refinery is completely offline while some processing units at other two larger refineries are still operational.
- Remaining operational Russian refineries could increase runs amid strong domestic product prices and higher margins although the increase will be limited by planned maintenance.
- Average runs at the end of March into April to average 370kb/d lower than the January-February average at near 5.0mb/d.
- Planned and unplanned outages are estimated up to 0.8-1.0mb/d over the coming months and could result in a material increase in crude exports, although some planned maintenance could be deferred.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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