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Russia/Ukraine Tension Heavy on Stocks, SPX Falls Over 2% Late

US TSYS
Ongoing Russia/Ukraine tension the main narrative driving risk-off tone Thursday (unconfirmed reports of renewed artillery firing in Eastern Ukraine making the rounds -- but note: Russia/Belarus were scheduled to perform live fire exercises today and Saturday).
  • Flood of headlines on day, gist: US/Allies disagree with reports of Russia troop withdrawals, wary of "false flag" operations.
  • Gold surged +29.25 on safe haven buying, WTI crude weaker -1.87 at 91.79 on Iran nuclear deal hopes. US$ index DXY firmer +.122 to 95.823.
  • For more prosaic reasons: Tsys extended early NY session highs after higher than forecasted weekly claims (+23k to 248k vs. 218k est).
  • Long end Tsy futures pared gains briefly after poorly received $9B 30Y TIPS auction, tailing appr 6.5bp w/ 0.195% high-yield (-0.292% prior auction in Aug '21) vs. 0.130% WI; 2.17x bid-to-cover vs. last month's 2.34x.
    • Indirect take-up receded to 69.9% vs. 74.9% last August; direct bidder take-up fell to 9.9% vs. 12.4%, primary dealer take-up climbed to 20.2% vs.12.7%.
  • Implied vol held firm, sellers wary of taking on additional risk on headline prone markets. Steady drip of upside call and call spd trade, long put positions holding stead. Call volume climbing: over 400k calls traded between Mar-Jun expiries Wednesday, OI +149k.
  • After the bell, 2-Yr yield is down 4.4bps at 1.4765%, 5-Yr is down 7.2bps at 1.8466%, 10-Yr is down 6.8bps at 1.9702%, and 30-Yr is down 3.5bps at 2.3109%.
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