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Russia Unlikely to Materially Boost Gas Supply to Europe This Winter

RUSSIA
  • Despite increased gas production, record high prices and a tight supply/demand balance, Russia is unlikely to significantly increase gas supply to Europe this winter
  • Central to this is Gazprom PJSC's pressing need to refill its own depleted gas storage levels.
  • BNEF data shows Russian winter withdrawals last heating season were a sizeable 60.6Bcm (20.8Bcm above the 10-year average), leaving storage levels at only 11.7Bcm (16% of pre-winter stockpiles of 72.3Bcm).
  • As such, to reach the domestic storage target of 72.6Bcm by November 1, record levels of injections are needed, thus reducing gas available for export and further adding to upward price pressures in Europ
  • Precisely how much gas Russia will be able to flow to Europe this winter will be heavily influenced by how cold the Russian winter is
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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