Russian Oil Exports From Western Ports To Fall 300kbpd MoM in November

Russian oil exports via its western ports are expected to fall by 300kbpd on the month to just above 2mbpd in November as domestic refineries are expected to raise runs as seasonal maintenance is concluding, sources told Reuters.

• Russia’s primary idle refining capacity is set to decline by 63% in November from October to 1.64mn tons according to Reuters calculations based on sources' data.
• The number was revised because of an extension for CDU-7 at Gazproms Omsk refinery for the whole of October.
• Rosnesft Saratocv refinery also extended CDU-6 maintenance by 16 days until October 28.
• "Fundamentally we expect a decline in November Urals exports, though the oil product ban was something no one expected, so it is difficult to predict exports given such sudden government decisions," a source in Russian oil market said.
• Russia has pledged to preserve an oil export cut of 300,000 bpd until the end of the year. Most recently Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that cut includes both oil and oil products.