Russian Tanker Availability Under Question

Russia has quietly acquired 100 or more tankers to overcome G7/EU restrictions but remains short of keeping current oil exports flowing, according to shipbrokers and analysts speaking with the FT.

• The so called “shadow fleet” will reduce the impact of the EU/G7 sanction package but will fall short of eliminating it, according to traders.
• The EU said that any non-EU-flagged tanker that was found to have breached the cap would face a ban from western maritime services for 90 days, rather than a lifetime ban as originally proposed.
• That could see some operators decide to accept a temporary ban as a cost of doing business, if the shipping rates on offer for transporting Russian oil outside the cap are high enough.
• Russia is still expected to face a lack of tankers and could struggle in the early months of 2023 to maintain its export levels, which would boost prices.
• Ship broker Braemar expects the Russian shortfall to be between 700k to 1.5mn b/d. Rystad estimates Russia will be short of 60 to 70 tankers, and expects seaborne exports to fall about 200k b/d.
• “Russia needs more than 240 tankers to keep its current exports flowing,” said Viktor Kurilov, analyst at Rystad.
• Russia has long said it will not deal with any country enforcing the ceiling and instead aims to use its new fleet to try to supply countries such as India, China and Turkey.