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MNI: US HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES ANNOUNCES HEARING ON SVB, SIG

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Santander See Key Rate At 6.00% By Year-End

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  • The decline in activity, the exchange rate appreciation of recent weeks and less external pressure will contribute to inflation continuing to fall throughout the year and closing at around 4.75%. If this scenario occurs, the conditions will exist for the Central Bank to begin the process of lowering the TPM at the beginning of the second quarter.
  • Inflationary expectations on the policy horizon, one of the Council's great concerns, have already receded to levels close to the target. Thus, in Santander’s central scenario, they anticipate that, as in the cycle of increases, the cuts will be relatively aggressive and will take the principal rate to 6% by the end of this year.
  • This will allow real interest rates to moderate, which, despite lower growth prospects, have remained very high in recent months. This, in turn, would help prop up growth for 2024.
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  • The decline in activity, the exchange rate appreciation of recent weeks and less external pressure will contribute to inflation continuing to fall throughout the year and closing at around 4.75%. If this scenario occurs, the conditions will exist for the Central Bank to begin the process of lowering the TPM at the beginning of the second quarter.
  • Inflationary expectations on the policy horizon, one of the Council's great concerns, have already receded to levels close to the target. Thus, in Santander’s central scenario, they anticipate that, as in the cycle of increases, the cuts will be relatively aggressive and will take the principal rate to 6% by the end of this year.
  • This will allow real interest rates to moderate, which, despite lower growth prospects, have remained very high in recent months. This, in turn, would help prop up growth for 2024.