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Schatz The Biggest Mover This Morning With UK Budget Due

BONDS
  • In core fixed income space Schatz has been the biggest mover this morning with yields hitting a high of 3.025% (13.2bp above yesterday's close) before fully reversing this move. The move higher in yields was triggered by the release of a Reuters ECB sources that suggested a 50bp hike in March was still the most likely outcome (which is a view that is in line with the MNI sources piece available here published two days ago).
  • The change in ECB hike expectations saw similar but smaller moves across other core fixed income markets. Treasuries are underperforming this morning after some weakness after the close yesterday while gilts and Bunds are both off their lows and closer to flat on the day.
  • Looking ahead we have the UK Budget today (probably starting shortly after 12:30GMT / 13:30CET) where there aren't expected to be too many rabbits out of the hat - and the markets instead focusing on the gilt remit. See our full preview here.
  • We also have US retail sales and PPI due at 12:30GMT / 13:30CET.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-8+ today at 113-19 with 10y UST yields down -2.8bp at 3.665% and 2y yields up 7.7bp at 4.332%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.03 today at 133.99 with 10y Bund yields up 3.5bp at 2.449% and Schatz yields up 3.1bp at 2.902%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.10 today at 103.45 with 10y yields up 3.3bp at 3.516% and 2y yields up 3.2bp at 3.496%.
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