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Scotia Above Consensus For Payrolls On Leisure & Hospitality Push

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Scotiabank estimate NFP growth of 300k in March (cons 230k), at the very top end of the survey range, having been closest to the mark in Canadian employment Thursday. They note the increasingly large confidence interval of +/- 130k but cautiously still see upside risk.
  • Judging by strength in OpenTable seated diners, it’s not inconceivable that the leisure & hospitality category jumped higher by perhaps hundreds of thousands of jobs, with further potential amplification from seasonal adjustments. Strong flight data further support strength.
  • Written prior to JOLTS, ADP and ISM employment sub-components. Job cuts may be elevated but to date there has been an ongoing and powerful rotation effect that has seen hiring sectors offset job losses.
  • AHE seen 0.3% M/M and it’s feasible there could be upside risks if those above indicators indicate a strong surge in labour demand.
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