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DOLLAR-CANADA: Scotia Bank write that CAD risk is elevated as markets head into
Wednesday's Bank of Canada rate decision.
The bank consider three possible scenarios: a hawkish hike, a neutral hike or a
dovish hike - and view the latter two as the more likely, given that
policymakers may not remove the 'gradual approach' language in the final
paragraph of the statement.
A neutral tone would balance stronger domestic growth and sentiment figures
against the negatives identified above, while a dovish hike would likely see
greater attention paid to global risks and recent financial market turbulence.
Scotia write that the current technical set up for the CAD is challenging as the
currency hovers just above the lower bound of a multi-month ascending trend
channel (USDCAD descending channel). A break of the channel would open up the
risk of a bear flag for the CAD (bull flag for USDCAD) and suggest a retest of
the 1.33/1.34 area at least in the next few weeks.