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Scotia Looking For Hawkish Jobs Surprises Across The Board

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Scotia estimate nonfarm payrolls growth of 220k in January (cons 185k) in Friday's report.
  • “The US job market appears to be strong. Weekly initial jobless benefit claims were little changed between the December and January nonfarm reference periods and are still averaging in the low-200k range. Layoffs have remained low, with January’s update due on Thursday before payrolls. JOLTS job vacancies are falling but remain above pre-pandemic levels amid uncertainty toward how many are ‘live’ postings with a true intention to fill.”
  • They also look for another 0.4% M/M SA gain in AHE (cons 0.3%) and a stable u/e rate at 3.7% (cons 3.8%).
  • “The latter is derived from the companion household survey that is expected to roughly equilibrate reversals of the large drops in employment and the size of the labour force of over 600k each in December by contrast to strength in nonfarm payrolls that were up 216k.”
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