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Scotia On Above Consensus CPI Forecast

CANADA
  • Scotiabank tops a wide range around consensus for tomorrow’s CPI print, expecting headline to have jumped from 7.7% to 8.9% Y/Y (cons. 8.4% Y/Y).
  • It comes from a 1.2% M/M increase or slightly stronger still in SA terms, led by a variety of drivers include gas adding 0.25pps and food 0.1pp to headline M/M, modest further contributions expected from vehicles and a potentially sizeable boost from re-opening services.
  • The re-opening impact is seen as the biggest wildcard, with an assumed 0.5pp M/M impact above and beyond other drivers, consistent with Canada easing restrictions at a faster pace than the US having first tightened them more aggressively.
  • The CPI report comes after Scotia dialled up their rate call to a peak 3.5% in 2022 (+50bps from prior forecast) where it stays through 2023.
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