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Scotia: On The Fence Between A First Cut In July Or Sept, Can’t Rule Out Tightening

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Scotiabank write that “US sent shivers down the spines of anyone who still thinks the Fed should be in a big rush to cut.”
  • “The core CPI reading probably means that core PCE that is due out on February 29th is tracking about 0.3% m/m SA. If so, then that would be meaningful after prints of 0.14, 0.06 and 0.17 over the prior 3 readings because it would send a caution against assuming that such a soft patch will continue.”
  • “I cannot see the Fed cutting at the May meeting on the back of numbers like these and the fact that Q1 US GDP is likely to come in strong just days before the meeting. Our call for the first cut to land in Q3 is on the fence between July and September and an awful lot has to go right to get a cut by then. I can’t rule out tightening.”
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