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Scotiabank Above Consensus For CPI

CANADA
  • Scotiabank see headline CPI inflation accelerating further to 6.4% Y/Y, driven by a latest 1.2% M/M in NSA terms (and a few tenths off that for the SA rate).
  • They see the major drivers as being food and gasoline prices. Gasoline could add +0.4pps to M/M headline but it could spill over into April instead.
  • Beyond non-core items, they note increasingly broad-based pressures throughout various services.
  • Used cars: StatCan said in Feb that it was working toward inclusion of used car prices in the basket – potentially adding over 1ppt to headline inflation – but it did not advise when. This could come with this month’s annual updating of weights.

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