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Scotiabank on Reforms and USDCOP Forecast

COLOMBIA
  • With only nine weeks left in the current congressional legislature session, Scotiabank assign a low probability to the approval of the ambitious political package. Were something to get approved, it would likely be greatly watered down. In that context, we anticipate a more conciliatory tone will be taken by the government.
  • In markets, international trends and a reduced domestic risk perception have led to an improved performance of local assets. In the first quarter, the Coltes curve fell significantly, while the USDCOP is now trading below the 4,500 pesos mark.
  • In the case of the exchange rate, seasonal flows due to tax payments from corporations are contributing to its appreciatory trend. However, this temporary effect is expected to vanish in the coming weeks.
  • Scotiabank’s forecast for the cross remains stable at around 4,750 to 4,900 by year-end; they assume that the currency is still pricing a risk premium from international developments, and a firming of the "higher for longer" stance at the Fed could trigger a stronger dollar in the medium term.
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