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Seasonally Adjusted CBA Spending Intentions Flat In November


CBA household spending intentions rose 1.9% m/m in November to be up 3.2% y/y but the seasonally adjusted data was flat on the month. November was driven by an increase in spending on transport due to higher fuel prices, retail because of the sales and health & fitness. Once the festive season is past, the impact of higher rates and cost of living is likely to change consumer behaviour and weaker spending is likely early in 2023.

  • Household spending is moderating in annual terms with November down to 3.2% y/y from 7.5% y/y and the peak of 15.2% in August. But the annual series is now facing strong negative base effects from a surge in post-lockdown sales in October/November 2021.
  • Home buying intentions index rose 3.9% m/m but is down 24.8% y/y. The increase in November was driven by an increase in listings and inspections but the number of home loan applications was down. This index is likely to fall further in the new year given that there is still a lot of tightening that is yet to be felt by households as there is around a 3-month lag and a lot of mortgages will be refinanced in H1 2023.
  • See press release here.
CBA household spending intentions y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/CBA/Bloomberg

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