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SEB Expecting A 75bps On Feb 8

POLAND
  • The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is likely to hike its policy rate by 75bps to 3.00% on February 8. A smaller hike of 50bps is also possible.
  • The NBP has been behind the curve but recent statements from members of the MPC have sounded increasingly hawkish.
  • The vast majority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 50bps hike in an effort not to stifle growth.
  • In addition, the government has lowered the VAT on key products to contain inflation as part of their “anti inflation shield”.
  • Yet, with inflation heading towards double digits in January and potentially February, SEB expects the NBP to go for a 75bps hike, as they did in November 2021.

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