Second Conservative MP In A Fortnight Defects To Labour In Blow To PM

Natalie Elphicke, formerly Conservative MP for Dover, has crossed the floor of the House of Commons to defect to the main opposition centre-left Labour Party. Elphicke is the second recent Conservative defection to Labour, following former health minister Dr Dan Poulter's crossing the floor on 27 April. While this action will not have an impact on the gov'ts ability to pass legislation - it still holds a sizeable majority in the Commons - it will come as another blow to PM Rishi Sunak after a chastening set of local election results over the weekend.

• Given the Conservatives poor polling numbers (trailing Sir Keir Starmer's Labour by ~20%), expectations were very low. In the event, the Conservatives lost 474 local councillors, and the prized mayoralty of the West Midlands. Sunak's apparent saving grace was that Conservative peer Ben Houchen held onto the mayoralty of the Tees Valley. At the time, this result was seen as just enough toavoid a leadership contest.
• However, Elphicke's defectioncould re-invigorate right-wing rebels in the party to launch a last-ditch effort to change leader before the general election.
• The long-term impact is unlikely to be significant, with Labour strong favourites to secure a majority at the general election largely expected in October-November. However, in the short-term, a summer leadership contest could upend gov't policy-making and alter the prospect or timing of a 'fiscal event' being called prior to any election.