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Second-Tier Inflation Data Extends Downtrend, IPCA Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • Limited movement across global currency markets may keep the Brazilian real subdued on Tuesday with the domestic focus potentially on the analysis of the text of tax reform bill, which may be presented today. IPCA inflation data will be published tomorrow, the final read before the June 21 Copom meeting/decision.
  • BCB President Roberto Campos Neto reiterated Monday that long-term inflation expectations are still high, but should start to decline as soon as the inflation and growth scenario become clearer in Brazil.
  • A second-tier general prices indicator (IGP-DI inflation) fell 2.33% m/m (estimate -1.93%) in May versus -1.01% in April, according to FGV. The annual rate fell 5.49% y/y (estimate -5.11%) versus -2.57% in April. The continued downtrend for inflation metrics across the nation has been underpinning a relief rally in the belly of the DI curve. When looking at the DI contract expiring in Jan 2027, yields are now around 270 basis points off their most elevated level in March, now residing at levels last seen in January 2022.
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