SEEK Job Ads Point To Continued Strong Labour Demand

NAB-SEEK job ads rose 2.8% m/m in January, the first rise since May 2022. Although off of the outsized May peak, they remain elevated and are 39.3% above December 2019 (pre-pandemic). The January rise may indicate that ads have normalised and are now stabilising at high levels (see chart) but that labour demand remains strong. While the increase in applicants per ad may help to reduce pressure on wages, the SEEK information and bank transaction data showing solid services spending are likely to keep the RBA hiking for now.

• In recent months the largest falls in job ads have been in Sydney and Melbourne which are popular destinations for migrants and thus are more likely to see an increase in the supply of labour. The increase in SEEK ads was driven by other states (SA, Tasmania & Queensland) and they remain 60-90% above pre-pandemic levels here.
• The January increase in advertised vacancies was broad-based across sectors with 24 of the 28 rising but there are now 6 that are below pre-pandemic levels.
• Applicants per job ad continued to rise in December and are now at their highest since the Covid-impacted February 2021 and are up 35.5% y/y. This suggests that labour shortages are probably easing but they are still 37% below pre-pandemic levels.