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Sell-Side Acknowledge Strength in Services, But See Little Read Through for Policy

EUROPEAN DATA
  • BNY Mellon write that services expansion does not obviate the case for ECB easing, with growth rates in the services sector converging to manufacturing. They note that with Summer approaching, risks to growth in services appear skewed to the upside.
  • Jefferies write that while services data showed signs of a rebound, the series tends to be volatile and does not change their view of mediocre growth in the Eurozone, and still see a first ECB cut in June.
  • Natixis see the divergence between services and manufacturing as worrisome, and the level of composite PMI if sustained in Q2 points to GDP growth of 0.3% Q/Q. They also flag that while output prices signal disinflation has stopped, the correlation has become less tight with actual data over time.
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