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Sell-Side Analyst Outlook On Labour Market Data (2/2)


Sell-side analysts on Tuesday's UK labour market data (in alphabetical order):

  • Citi: Risks tilted to upside vs consensus on the headline earnings print; private sector regular pay should show moderation; unemp at 4.0%.
  • Goldman Sachs: Barring any back data revisions: private sector regular pay growth unch at 7.7%; regular whole economy pay growth rising to 7.5% vs 7.3% prior. Unemp rate unch at 4%.
  • JPMorgan: 0.5% M/M slowing in regular pay, a slight slowing vs the prev 3 months (ex-bonuses seen 7.3%, headline 7.4%, private sector ex-bonuses 7.8%), with some downside risk. Unemployment steady at 4% w upside risk.
  • NatWest: Headline pay growth 7.3% (on higher bonus payments), ex-bonuses stable at 7.3%; private sector regular pay growth at 7.7%. Unemployment rate to tick up to 4.1% amid continuation of recent trends in the working age population and labour force participation.
  • Nomura: Unemployment rate to tick up to 4.1%; private sector regular pay to moderate to 0.4% M/M (vs 0.7% avg this year so far).
  • RBC: Ex-bonus wage growth to dip to 7.2%; private sector wages unch at 7.7%.
  • SocGen: Regular pay growth to remain 7.3%; total up to 7.2%. Unemployment rate unch at 4.0%. "The market is still very tight but starting to loosen."
  • TD: Ex-bonus wages seen up 7.4%; private sector pay growth seen rising to 7.8%. "We not only continue to expect a solid month-on-month increase in wages in June, but moreover, look for further upside pressure from revisions to put wage growth even further above the MPC's forecast."

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