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Sell-Side Analysts Realign Views With Powell's Guidance (1/2)
A slew of changes for sell-side expectations in the wake of Wednesday's Powell press conference guiding to consecutive 50bp hikes in June and July. Though for the most part, the terminal rate expectations are unchanged:
- BNP: Now expect four consecutive 50bp hikes through September before falling back to a 25bp hiking pace (previously had seen 25bp in Jul and Sep). Their terminal rate view of 3.00-3.25% is unchanged.
- Goldman Sachs: Revised up July FOMC forecast to see a 50bp hike, vs 25bp expected previously. But they’re not making further changes beyond July, though another 50bp in September looks possible. They have not changed their terminal rate forecast of 3.00-3.25%, but we now see that by 2023Q2 (vs. 2023Q3 previously).
- Morgan Stanley: Sees the Fed on course for 50bp hikes at the next 2 meetings, vs a previous expectation that July and beyond would only see 25bp raises. They expect end-2022 rates of 2.625%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.